The world comes to Keeneland
Nine championship races in about five hours. Europe ships in its turf stars, Japan brings back last year's Classic winner, and America brings the speed. Here's the story of each race in plain English, with the horses Claude likes.
Three storylines for the day
Europe vs. America
The grass races are full of European stars: unbeaten Blue Bolt, the Arc's 2nd and 3rd place finishers, and a sprinter who won two of Europe's biggest sprints. The home team has to defend its turf.
R5 · R7 · R9 · R11Speed duels everywhere
Most dirt races have two or three horses who need the lead. When they fight up front, they tire each other out, and that sets it up for the horses waiting behind them. The exception is the Distaff, where Nitrogen should be alone on the lead.
R4 · R6 · R8 · R10 · R12Champ vs. champ
Japan's Forever Young won last year's Classic and comes back to defend it. America's Sovereignty won the 2025 Derby and Belmont and this year's Whitney, and Claude now has him on top. Watch Knightsbridge too: with Magnitude scratched, he could steal it on the lead.
R12Read a race in 30 seconds
The odds
"5-2" means win $5 for every $2 bet. Lower odds = more people expect that horse to win. The morning line is a guess; real odds move until post time.
The pace
If several fast starters all want the lead, they wear each other out and a closer wins. If only one wants it, that horse can steal the race.
The surface
Dirt races (orange) and turf races (purple) suit different horses. Europeans mostly race on grass, which is why they target the turf races.
The chances
The bars on each race show Claude's estimate of each horse's chance to win. 40% means it wins about 4 times out of 10, so even "locks" lose.
The day at a glance
Your race-day schedule
Post time (ET) and distance. Longer bar = longer race.
How sure is Claude?
Claude's chance for the top horse in each race. Short bar = wide open.
Where the horses are based
Runners in each race by the country where they train.
Pace forecast
How many horses in each race like to be on or near the lead. More speed = better for closers.
The theme of every race
Each card has the story in one line, the horses to know, Claude's chances for the top five and who should be up front early.